2007/2008 Winter Forecast

Philadelphia/South Jersey; Washington, DC and Surrounding Suburbs

Time Period: December 1st, 2007 to March 31st, 2008

Issued November 10th, 2007

I am forecasting an above normal winter for the area. There is potential for this to be a much above normal and I am tempted to say that this could be one of the top 5 warmest winters of all time. However, I will take the conservative approach. This will solely depend on how strong the La Nina gets and if the strength persists into much of the winter. Analog winters I have chosen are 1973/1974 and 1998/1999. Below are the details on my thinking for this upcoming winter.

• Western Storm Track, either being over the Application Mountains or into the Great Lakes
• Warm ahead of storm systems, cold behind them
• Snow to rain, or all rain type events
• Feb21st to March 10th best period for snow events

Total Seasonal Snowfall

Washington, D.C./Surrounding Suburbs: 6-8 inches

Philadelphia/South Jersey: 8-11 inches

December

• Temperatures at or slightly above normal(0 to +1 degrees)
• No Snow or ice events
• above average precipitation

January

• Temperatures well above normal(+5 to +7 degrees above average)
• 2-3 days reaching 60+ degrees, within one of them possibly reaching 70(especially so for the DC area)
• No Snow or ice events
• Precipitation around average

February

• Warm first half; cold second half
• Temperatures above average(+1 to +3)
• 1-2 snow or ice events
• Precipitation around average

March

• Below Normal Temperatures
• one snow or ice event