2008/2009 Winter Forecast
Philadelphia/South Jersey; Washington, DC and Surrounding Suburbs
Time Period: December 1st, 2008 to March 31st, 2009
Issued November 15th, 2008
The forecast entails monthly temperature and snowfall, as well as total snowfall for the season. This will not be as easy to forecast as last winter season. Confidence is much lower, mainly for the months of December and February. Past seasons to compare with this winter are 1985/86 and 1989/1990.
These are not high confidence analog years for comparison. I have backed off a lot in the last 30 days with the total amount of snowfall for this winter as well as the thinking of a very cold, below average winter. The big change for less snowfall has to do with the current climate patterns and ocean
temperatures across the globe and how they have evolved over the past three months.
Expect this winter to be cooler than last winter, but still slightly warmer than average with below average snowfall. In fact, the past seasons that are matched for this upcoming winter saw most of the cold and snow before Jan 15th. The tracks of storm systems will be much different this year. Last year
saw most of them track west of Philadelphia and DC, through the mountains and even points west into Ohio and western New York. This brought mostly rain events or snow to rain events. There were very few coastal storms. Expect a mix bag this year, with some coastal storms, a few right along the coast and
also west of the area. This will mean a chance of all snow events, mixed events, and all rain events.
Seasonal Snowfall Prediction
Washington, D.C and surrounding suburbs
Total: 12 - 14 inches; average winter total around 17 inches
Mainly Moderate Snowstorms in the 3-6 inch range; no events of 8"+
Philadelphia/South Jersey
Total: 14 - 17 inches; average winter total around 20 inches
Mainly Moderate Snowstorms in the 4-8 inch range; no events of 10"+
Month by Month Analysis
December
- Very cold with well below normal temperatures
- up to two snowstorms; one event between the 2nd and the 8th and the other between the 21st and 30th.
- Temperatures 2 to 4 degree below average
- Precipitation below average
January
- Starts off cold for the first week, then warms dramatically and stays above average for the rest of the month
- Temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above average
- Don’t see any much above normal temps in the 60+ range like last year. Look for mainly upper 40’s to lower 50’s
- No snow or ice events
- Precipitation near normal
February
- warm one half and cold the other, but not sure which one will occur first
- Temperatures near normal or slightly above
- One Snowstorm
- Precipitation Near Normal
March
- Winter ends on a cool note
- one final snowstorm early in the month between the 1st and 6th
- Temperatures 1 to 2 degrees below average
- Precipitation below normal